Written and reviewed by the Solar X Team. ESA/ECRA Licensed Electrical Contractor, Licence 7017538. 10,000+ solar and battery installations, 118 MW installed across Canada. Last verified against the sources listed at the end of this article.
What is shutting down at Pickering in September 2026?
According to Ontario Power Generation, Pickering Units 5 to 8 will be taken offline in September 2026 so the station can be prepared for refurbishment. OPG has applied to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission for a 10 year licence that includes refurbishment activities, and the CNSC is holding a two part public hearing in 2026 to consider the application. You can read OPG's own update in its Pickering and Darlington community newsletter.
In plain terms: four working nuclear reactors stop producing electricity next month, and OPG plans to rebuild them so they can run for decades more. OPG states the project will secure 2,100 megawatts of low carbon electricity for more than 30 years, which also tells you the scale of what leaves the grid next month. The refurbishment is a planned, multi year project, it remains subject to regulatory approval, and OPG expects the refurbished units back in service in the mid 2030s.
This matters to your bill because those reactors produce a large amount of steady, lower cost power. When that supply leaves the grid, Ontario buys more of its electricity from more expensive sources while demand keeps growing.
How does a nuclear shutdown reach your hydro bill?
Think of Ontario's grid like a big shared pizza. In September, a large piece of that pizza is taken off the table, but everyone at the table still wants the same number of slices. The remaining slices cost more to serve.
Here is the mechanical version. Most Ontario households pay Regulated Price Plan prices set by the Ontario Energy Board. To set those prices, the OEB uses an independent wholesale cost forecast, then calculates the rates needed to cover the expected cost of supply. When forecast supply costs rise, the prices the OEB sets tend to follow, in a smoothed and partial way. Your total bill also includes delivery and regulatory charges plus the Ontario Electricity Rebate, which we explain in our line by line hydro bill breakdown.
Two quick definitions, since they matter for the rest of this article. Time of Use pricing charges different rates depending on the hour of the day. Ultra Low Overnight pricing offers a very cheap overnight rate in exchange for a much higher weekday evening rate.
What does the forecast the OEB uses actually say?
The OEB commissioned an independent wholesale price forecast from Power Advisory LLC, published on October 17, 2025 alongside the current rate decision. The report states plainly that wholesale prices rise sharply in October 2026 because five nuclear units are assumed to go out of service for refurbishment at the end of September: the four remaining Pickering units and Bruce B Unit 5. Both the forecast report and the price report built on it are published on the OEB's Regulated Price Plan page.
Here are the base case figures, taken directly from the report:
| Calendar period | On peak | Off peak | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2025 to January 2026 | $66.22 | $45.89 | $55.13 |
| August 2026 to October 2026 | $73.20 | $50.04 | $60.55 |
| November 2026 to January 2027 | $108.83 | $82.54 | $94.53 |
Figures in Canadian dollars per megawatt hour. Source: Power Advisory LLC, Ontario Wholesale Electricity Market Price Forecast, Table ES 1, prepared for the Ontario Energy Board, October 17, 2025. Comparing the two winter windows, the average forecast price rises about 71 percent year over year.
Two honest cautions. First, wholesale prices are one input into household rates, not the whole bill. Second, a forecast is a projection, not a decision, and the report itself notes that forecasts are uncertain and cannot be guaranteed. For the full driver by driver analysis, see our breakdown of the OEB commissioned forecast.
Current Ontario electricity prices until October 31, 2026
These are the prices the OEB set effective November 1, 2025. They apply until October 31, 2026, per the OEB's rate announcement. The Ontario Electricity Rebate is currently 23.5 percent, which reduces a typical residential bill by about 36 dollars per month according to the OEB.
| Price plan | Period | Price per kWh |
|---|---|---|
| Time of Use | Off peak | 9.8 cents |
| Time of Use | Mid peak | 15.7 cents |
| Time of Use | On peak | 20.3 cents |
| Tiered | Tier 1 | 12.0 cents |
| Tiered | Tier 2 | 14.2 cents |
| Ultra Low Overnight | Overnight, 11 p.m. to 7 a.m. | 3.9 cents |
| Ultra Low Overnight | Weekend off peak | 9.8 cents |
| Ultra Low Overnight | Mid peak | 15.7 cents |
| Ultra Low Overnight | On peak, weekdays 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. | 39.1 cents |
Source: Ontario Energy Board, prices effective November 1, 2025, verified August 2026. Time of Use period hours shift seasonally while the prices hold until October 31, 2026.
Notice the Ultra Low Overnight spread: 3.9 cents overnight versus 39.1 cents on weekday evenings. That gap is why home batteries have become a serious conversation in Ontario, and it is also a number that can change on November 1. For a plain guide to how each plan works, see our guide to Ontario electricity rate plans.
Will Ontario hydro rates definitely go up on November 1, 2026?
Nobody can promise you the number, including us. Here is what is known and what is not.
Known: the OEB sets new Regulated Price Plan prices effective November 1, 2026, and based on recent practice the announcement usually lands in mid October. The forecast the OEB relies on points upward, driven by the Pickering and Bruce refurbishment outages, carbon costs on gas generation, and growing demand.
Not known: the final prices, and what the provincial government does with the Ontario Electricity Rebate. Last year the government raised the rebate to 23.5 percent, which absorbed part of the underlying increase. It could adjust the rebate again in either direction. Any article that tells you today exactly what your rate will be in November is guessing.
What we can say responsibly: the structural drivers all point the same way, and the window to prepare is before the winter rates land, not after.
What you can do before winter rates land
Know your rate plan. Time of Use, Tiered and Ultra Low Overnight suit different households, and you are allowed to switch. Our guide to Ontario electricity rate plans walks through who each plan fits.
Shift what you can. Dishwashers, laundry, EV charging and pool pumps moved to off peak or overnight hours cost less under every current plan. This costs nothing and works from day one.
Look seriously at solar and battery, with clear eyes. Solar reduces how much electricity you buy from the grid, so every rate increase raises the value of each kilowatt hour your roof produces. A battery lets you store cheap overnight power or your own solar production and use it during expensive hours. Savings depend on your usage, roof, shading, rate plan and system design, and every home is different. Solar is also a poor fit for some homes: heavily shaded roofs, very low usage households, or a roof near the end of its life should usually fix those issues first.
One rule to understand before you sign anything. As of August 2026, Ontario homeowners choosing solar face a fork in the road: the Home Renovation Savings incentive or a net metering agreement, not both. The official program page states that participants who receive the incentive for solar or battery storage cannot participate in net metering, because the rebate path is designed for load displacement only, meaning the power you generate serves your own home rather than being exported for credit. Program terms can change, and rebates are never guaranteed until approved. Our rebate versus net metering decision guide explains how to choose.
If you want a professional read on your own home, Solar X is a Canadian residential solar installation company serving Ontario homeowners. Our residential solar and battery installation process runs assessment, design, contract, permits, ESA inspection, utility connection approval and rebate processing in that order, and we do not promise dates, approvals or timelines, because permits, inspections, utility connections, rebates and financing are decided by the authorities that govern them.
The short version of this whole article: four reactors leave the grid in September, the forecast behind Ontario hydro rates for November 2026 points up, the final number arrives in October, and the homeowners in the best position this winter are the ones who checked their rate plan, their usage habits and their solar and battery options before the announcement, not after.
Frequently asked questions
Why are Ontario electricity prices expected to rise in late 2026?
The forecast prepared for the Ontario Energy Board by Power Advisory LLC projects wholesale electricity prices to rise sharply after September 2026, when four Pickering reactors and one Bruce unit begin refurbishment. Average wholesale prices are forecast to climb from about 55 dollars per megawatt hour in late 2025 to roughly 95 dollars in late 2026. Final household rates are set by the OEB and are not announced yet.
When will the new Ontario hydro rates be announced?
The Ontario Energy Board sets Regulated Price Plan prices effective November 1, 2026. Based on recent practice, the announcement usually lands in mid October. The current prices were announced on October 17, 2025. Until the OEB publishes the new prices, any specific number for November 2026 is a forecast, not a fact.
What are the current Ontario electricity rates?
As of August 2026, Time of Use prices are 9.8 cents off peak, 15.7 cents mid peak and 20.3 cents on peak per kilowatt hour. Tiered prices are 12.0 and 14.2 cents. Ultra Low Overnight prices run from 3.9 cents overnight to 39.1 cents on peak. These prices were set by the OEB on November 1, 2025 and apply until October 31, 2026.
Does the Pickering shutdown mean power outages this winter?
No outage is announced. The Pickering refurbishment is a planned project, and the province's system operator plans supply around it. The main effect homeowners are expected to feel is on price, because lower cost nuclear supply leaves the grid while demand keeps growing. Reliability planning is published by the IESO throughout the year.
Can solar panels protect against rising Ontario hydro rates?
Solar reduces how much electricity you buy from the grid, so every rate increase raises the value of each kilowatt hour your roof produces. Savings depend on your usage, roof, rate plan and system design, and every home is different. Solar is also a poor fit for some homes, such as heavily shaded roofs or very low usage households.
Can I combine the Home Renovation Savings rebate with net metering?
No. As of August 2026, the program rules state that homeowners who receive the Home Renovation Savings incentive for solar or battery storage cannot participate in a net metering agreement. The rebate path is for load displacement only, meaning the power you generate serves your own home. You choose one path, and program terms can change.
Sources
- Ontario Power Generation, Neighbours newsletter, Pickering and Darlington, Winter 2026: opg.com
- Ontario Energy Board, electricity price announcement, October 17, 2025: oeb.ca
- Ontario Energy Board, Regulated Price Plan page hosting the price report and the wholesale market price forecast report, both issued October 17, 2025: oeb.ca
- Home Renovation Savings program, solar and battery storage page: homerenovationsavings.ca
- Power Advisory LLC, Ontario Wholesale Electricity Market Price Forecast, November 1, 2025 to April 30, 2027, prepared for the Ontario Energy Board, October 17, 2025: oeb.ca (PDF)