Why Electricity Prices Are Going Up in Canada (2026 Update)

TL;DR

Ontario hydro rates jumped roughly 29% on November 1, 2025 (OEB, Oct 17 2025). The IESO now forecasts provincial demand to grow 75% by 2050 (IESO 2025 APO). The Canada Energy Regulator projects national end-use electricity demand to rise 44% from 2023 to 2050 under its baseline Current Measures scenario (CER, Mar 17 2026). EV adoption, AI data centres, and electrification of heating are stacking on top of a grid already paying for $20B+ in nuclear refurbishment and SMR construction. Solar, paired with net metering or load displacement, lets Ontario homeowners lock in a flat per-kWh cost for 30 years.

Reviewed by the Solar X Engineering Team. ESA/ECRA Licensed Electrical Contractor (Ontario, Licence 7017538). NABCEP-certified PV installation team.

Last verified: May 15, 2026 against the Ontario Energy Board, IESO, Canada Energy Regulator, Statistics Canada, the International Energy Agency, and TD Economics. Refreshed every OEB November rate change, IESO Annual Planning Outlook release, and CER Energy Future update.

What this page is, and how to verify it

This is a maintained reference page. Every figure below is linked to its primary source. We pull only from the Ontario Energy Board (OEB), the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), Statistics Canada, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and TD Economics. If you click any cited number on this page, it should take you to the regulator's own document. If you ever find a number on this page that does not match the linked source, email info@solar-x.ca and we will correct it.

We update this page every quarter and whenever any of these regulators issues a new rate or planning announcement.

Current Ontario electricity rates (as of November 1, 2025)

These are the regulated prices set by the Ontario Energy Board for most households, small businesses, and farms in Ontario. They run from November 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026.

Primary source: OEB Electricity Rates page · OEB Nov 1 2025 announcement · Official Backgrounder PDF

Time-of-Use (TOU)

TOU period	Hours (winter Nov 1 to Apr 30)	Hours (summer May 1 to Oct 31)	Price
Off-Peak	Weekdays 7 p.m. to 7 a.m., weekends and holidays all day	Same	9.8 ¢/kWh
Mid-Peak	Weekdays 11 a.m. to 5 p.m.	Weekdays 7 a.m. to 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. to 7 p.m.	15.7 ¢/kWh
On-Peak	Weekdays 7 a.m. to 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. to 7 p.m.	Weekdays 11 a.m. to 5 p.m.	20.3 ¢/kWh

Ultra-Low Overnight (ULO)

ULO period	Hours	Price
Ultra-Low Overnight	Every day 11 p.m. to 7 a.m.	3.9 ¢/kWh
Weekend Off-Peak	Weekends and holidays 7 a.m. to 11 p.m.	9.8 ¢/kWh
Mid-Peak	Weekdays 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. to 11 p.m.	15.7 ¢/kWh
On-Peak	Weekdays 4 p.m. to 9 p.m.	39.1 ¢/kWh

Tiered

Tier	Threshold (winter)	Threshold (summer)	Price
Tier 1	First 1,000 kWh/month (residential)	First 600 kWh/month (residential)	12.0 ¢/kWh
Tier 2	Above 1,000 kWh/month	Above 600 kWh/month	14.2 ¢/kWh

What changed in November 2025

Regulated Price Plan rates increased by approximately 29% on November 1, 2025. The Ontario government partially offset the increase by raising the Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER) from 13.1% to 23.5%, which knocks about $36 off a typical 700 kWh monthly bill (OEB announcement).

The rebate softens the line on your bill. It does not change the underlying cost of producing power, and it is a discretionary government program, not a contract.

Important

The OER is a government rebate, not a guarantee. It can be reduced or removed at any future provincial budget. The underlying rates are what your home actually consumes.

We break down what changed and what is coming next in our companion piece, Why Your Ontario Hydro Bill Is About to Skyrocket in 2026.

What is actually driving the increases

Rates are not going up because of any single line item. Five forces are stacking on top of each other. Every number in this section links to its primary source.

One. Total electricity demand is rising fast

The IESO's 2025 Annual Planning Outlook forecasts Ontario's annual electricity demand to grow from 151 TWh in 2025 to 263 TWh by 2050, a 75% increase. That is up from a 60% forecast just one year earlier (IESO news release · Full 2025 APO PDF). Nationally, the Canada Energy Regulator's Canada's Energy Future 2026 report projects electricity generation to grow between 30% and more than double today's levels by 2050, with end-use electricity demand rising 44% from 2023 to 2050 under the baseline Current Measures scenario (CER news release · Executive Summary). More demand on a system with finite generation and transmission capacity means rates rise to fund the build-out.

Two. New supply costs more than legacy supply

Ontario is in the middle of one of the largest nuclear builds on the continent: the Darlington Refurbishment, the Bruce Power Major Component Replacement, and the construction of the first of four Small Modular Reactors at Darlington. The combined commitment exceeds $20 billion, and these costs flow into the Global Adjustment that is built into every kilowatt-hour you pay. The IESO's modelling shows the per-megawatt-hour real cost of Ontario electricity beginning at $170/MWh in 2025, dipping to roughly $155/MWh in 2039, then rising to $177/MWh by 2050 in real (2024) dollars (IESO Seven Graphs and a Map). In nominal dollars, the rise is significantly steeper because inflation compounds on top.

Three. EV adoption is adding a major new load per household

Statistics Canada and the Canada Energy Regulator report that a typical electric vehicle consumes 3,000 to 6,000 kWh per year driving roughly 20,000 km (Statistics Canada). The Ontario Energy Board reports the average Ontario household uses roughly 9,000 kWh per year (OEB Bill Calculator). That means a single EV adds approximately 33% to 67% to a household's annual electricity consumption. A two-EV household can effectively double its load. The IESO confirms this is the single biggest demand driver: electric vehicle adoption alone represents 20 TWh, or 31%, of new Ontario electricity demand by 2035.

Four. Data centres are absorbing massive new blocks of supply

Toronto, Montreal, and Alberta together account for 93% of Canada's total IT load (data centre capacity), according to DCByte research cited by Data Center Knowledge. The IESO projects Ontario data centre electricity demand to grow from 2.5 TWh in 2026 to 14 TWh in 2050, a 460% increase, and to make up 13% of all new Ontario electricity demand by 2035 (IESO Demand Forecast Module). As of July 2025, Ontario had received new data centre connection requests exceeding 6,500 MW, nearly 30% of the entire province's 2024 peak demand. Hydro-Quebec has signalled plans to roughly double rates for large data centres starting mid-2026. Globally, the International Energy Agency's Energy and AI report projects data centre electricity consumption to roughly double by the end of 2026 versus 2022.

Five. Utility delivery and transmission charges are rising too

The “Electricity” line on your bill is only part of the story. The Delivery line, which is your local distribution company's cost to physically move power to your home, is rising in parallel as utilities apply to the OEB for rate increases every year to pay for transmission upgrades, grid hardening, and storm response (OEB Electricity Distribution Rates page). The OEB approves these distribution rate applications annually, and they are essentially never approved at zero.

Recent and announced rate hikes (live tracker)

We update this section every time a Canadian utility or regulator publishes a rate change.

Date	Jurisdiction	Change	Source
Nov 1, 2025	Ontario (RPP)	TOU on-peak rose to 20.3 ¢/kWh; Tier 1 to 12.0 ¢/kWh; ULO peak now 39.1 ¢/kWh. RPP rates increased ~29%. OER raised to 23.5% to partially offset.	OEB rate announcement
Mar 17, 2026	Federal (CER)	Canada's Energy Future 2026 published. Baseline projects 44% end-use electricity demand growth by 2050.	CER news release
Mid-2026	Quebec	Hydro-Quebec proposing to roughly double electricity rates for large data centres.	Industry reporting
Annual	Ontario distributors	LDC delivery rate applications submitted April/May each year for January/May implementation.	OEB Distribution Rates

How solar locks in your cost for 30 years

Here is the simple version of the math.

When you install a properly sized residential solar system in Ontario, you are buying 25 to 30 years of electricity production at a fixed, known cost, the day you sign the contract. The panels we install (Trina, Longi, JA Solar, Canadian Solar) carry 25 to 30 year performance warranties. Microinverters and string inverters carry 12 to 25 year warranties.

That means once your system is installed and paid for, the per-kilowatt-hour effective cost of the electricity it produces is set for the life of the equipment.

The math, plainly

A typical Ontario residential solar system size depends on your annual consumption, your roof, and your utility's net metering or load displacement rules. Pricing varies with system size, equipment selection, and current incentive availability. With the Home Renovation Savings Program rebate (up to $5,000 for solar plus up to $5,000 for paired battery storage) and the federal Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit, net installed cost drops meaningfully. For current pricing and a site-specific quote, see How Much Do Solar Panels Cost in Ontario in 2026?

A residential solar system generates a known amount of electricity over its 25 to 30 year warranted life, at the effective rate you set on day one. No on-peak rate, no Global Adjustment, no rate review proceeding, no OER that can be cut. If grid rates simply track the IESO's own forecast (a real $7/MWh increase to 2050 plus inflation), the value of every solar kilowatt-hour rises every year. If rates rise faster (which is what has actually happened over the last decade), the value rises faster too.

What solar does not do

We will not pretend otherwise: solar does not eliminate the Delivery and Regulatory charges on your bill. Those are tied to your physical connection to the grid. What solar eliminates is the Electricity line, the part driven by Global Adjustment, generation contracts, and OEB rate setting (OEB explanation of bill components). That Electricity line is also the part of your bill that has risen the most over the last ten years and is forecast to rise most over the next twenty-five.

Get your own numbers

If you want to see what a system would cost for your specific home, your specific roof, and your specific utility, with the current 2026 rebates applied, book a free site-specific ROI assessment. We will pull your last 12 months of consumption, model production for your roof orientation, apply every incentive you qualify for, and give you a 25-year ROI projection in writing. No pressure, no fees.

Free Residential Assessment Call 1-833-376-5279

Frequently asked questions

How much have Ontario electricity rates gone up?+

Ontario's Regulated Price Plan rates increased by approximately 29% on November 1, 2025. The on-peak TOU rate rose from 18.2 cents per kWh in 2023 to 20.3 cents per kWh as of November 1, 2025. The Ultra-Low Overnight on-peak rate is now 39.1 cents per kWh. Tier 1 (Tiered plan) is 12.0 cents per kWh; Tier 2 is 14.2 cents per kWh. The Ontario Electricity Rebate was raised from 13.1% to 23.5% to partially offset the increase.

Why is electricity getting more expensive in Canada?+

Five overlapping reasons: (1) rising overall demand - the IESO forecasts +75% by 2050 in Ontario and the Canada Energy Regulator forecasts +44% end-use electricity demand nationally by 2050 under its baseline Current Measures scenario; (2) the cost of new and refurbished generation - Ontario is in a major nuclear refurbishment cycle (Darlington, Bruce, and the first of four Darlington SMRs) with more than $20 billion in commitments flowing into the Global Adjustment; (3) electric vehicle adoption adding 3,000 to 6,000 kWh per EV per year per Statistics Canada; (4) rapid data centre growth in Toronto, Montreal, and Alberta; and (5) annual distribution rate increases from local utilities approved by the OEB.

How much extra electricity does an EV use?+

A typical electric vehicle driving about 20,000 km per year uses 3,000 to 6,000 kWh of electricity annually, according to Statistics Canada citing the Canada Energy Regulator. That is roughly 33% to 67% on top of an average Ontario household's 9,000 kWh annual consumption per OEB Bill Calculator reference data. A two-EV household effectively doubles its load. The IESO confirms EVs are the single largest demand driver, accounting for 31% of new Ontario electricity demand by 2035 (about 20 TWh).

Are data centres really driving up electricity prices?+

They are a meaningful and rapidly growing pressure. The IESO forecasts Ontario data centre demand to rise from 2.5 TWh in 2026 to 14 TWh by 2050 (a 460% increase), and to account for 13% of all new Ontario electricity demand by 2035. As of mid-2025, Ontario had received connection requests exceeding 6,500 MW from new data centres, nearly 30% of the province's 2024 peak demand. Globally, the International Energy Agency expects data centre electricity use to roughly double by the end of 2026 versus 2022. Hydro-Quebec is proposing to roughly double rates for large data centres starting mid-2026.

Can solar really lock in my electricity cost for 25 years?+

Yes, for the electricity your panels produce. A residential solar system installed today carries a 25 to 30 year performance warranty on panels and a 12 to 25 year warranty on inverters. The capital cost is fixed the day you sign. Every kilowatt-hour the system produces over its life is at that locked-in effective rate, regardless of what the OEB does to grid rates. Delivery and Regulatory charges remain tied to the grid; solar eliminates the Electricity line, which is the part of your bill that has risen most over the last decade and is forecast to rise most over the next 25 years.

Is now the right time to install solar in Ontario?+

The Home Renovation Savings Program currently offers up to $5,000 in rebates for solar and up to $5,000 more for paired battery storage. The federal Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit is in force for businesses, farms, and incorporated entities at 30%. Both programs are subject to annual funding caps and policy review. The OEB is reviewing the net metering framework. Locking in current rebates, current net metering terms, and current installation pricing is the simple case for moving now rather than waiting.

Where does Solar X install in Ontario?+

Solar X is an ESA/ECRA Licensed Electrical Contractor (Ontario, Licence 7017538) serving Ontario, Alberta, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. In Ontario, Solar X installs in Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Ottawa, Hamilton, London, Kitchener, Waterloo, Barrie, Kingston, Oshawa, Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Burlington, and 21+ other cities. Full list at solar-x.ca/ontario/cities.

Contact Solar X

Solar X

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About Solar X

Solar X is an ESA/ECRA Licensed Electrical Contractor (Ontario, Licence 7017538) and NABCEP-certified solar installer with 10,000+ residential and commercial projects completed and 118 MW of installed capacity across Canada. We are a registered Save on Energy contractor and manage the full rebate application process at no additional cost. We install Tier-1 panels (Trina, Longi, JA Solar, Canadian Solar) with Enphase, SolarEdge, or Huawei inverters and Tesla Powerwall or LG Chem batteries. All systems carry manufacturer warranties of 25 to 30 years.

Related Solar X resources

Primary sources

Every claim on this page is traceable to one of the documents below. If a number on this page does not match its linked source, the source wins. Email info@solar-x.ca for corrections.

Disclosure: rate forecasts cited on this page come from the IESO, CER, and IEA and are not guaranteed outcomes. Solar production estimates and ROI are based on site-specific design and current incentive programs, which are subject to government policy changes. Solar X does not guarantee future utility rates, rebate availability, or net metering terms. We will update this page when any of these inputs change. Last reviewed May 15, 2026.

Why Electricity Prices Are Going Up in Canada (2026) - Key Verified Facts